Bailout inventory of the last trump card is. .
Mid-July, the United States Securities and Futures Commission issued an urgent order for large financial companies of some of the limitations of short selling to combat market manipulation and excessive speculation of possible, prevent market rout. The initiative once again ignite China's new round of bailout debate..
Debate on the bailout or fact implies several layers of issues: First, the government should or should not rescue the market, or save the municipal government responsibilities are not within the scope of things. If the answer should be, then, when the Government should come to the rescue. Point in time the issue will involve the government's determination of reasonable point, involving the so-called according to which criteria to determine a reasonable point. Point to determine a reasonable question, then I am afraid that is what the question means to be valid.。 All such measures seem to have some value, but in addition to these, the Government hands how many cards can play? ...
Leaving aside this should not be saved, and when saved the problem, let us first of these so-called bailout measures by a large military parade to see if the bailout measures the effectiveness of what might be. Inventory of the hands of the rescue license, or have some meaning. .
First take a look at the once seemingly apparent margin of..
The so-called margin trading business, is the securities company to lend to customers for their purchase of securities, loan securities sold for their business activities. The customer securities companies to borrow funds to buy securities, sell securities borrowed transactions, it is called margin trading, also known as credit transactions. .
Margin trading and the common difference securities transactions is mainly:..
First, investors in common stock trading, buying securities, you must have full funding in advance; sell securities, you must have a full stock. Engaged in margin trading is different, investors predict the rise in equity prices will not have sufficient funds on hand, securities companies can borrow money to buy securities; forecast to fall in securities prices will not securities on hand, you may apply to securities companies sell borrowed securities. .
Second is investors engaged in General securities transactions Shi, its and securities company Zhijian only exists delegate sale of relationship, therefore does not need to securities company provides guarantees; and engaged in financing thaw coupons transactions Shi, its and securities company Zhijian not only exists delegate sale of relationship, also exists funds or securities of borrowing relationship, therefore also to prior to cash or securities of form to securities company delivery must proportion of margin, and will financing buy of securities and thaw coupons sold proceeds funds delivery securities company, as guarantees property..
Third, investors in securities transactions in general, the risk entirely by its own, you can trade all securities traded in the Stock Exchange; and engage in margin trading, if not on time and in full repayment of funds or securities, but also pose a risk to the securities companies, investors and securities companies can only be agreed upon in the context of securities trading. .
Functions of margin trading, the market generally has four basic functions: one is price discovery. Financing mechanisms exist, more information can be integrated into the stock price, so that it can more fully reflect the intrinsic value of securities. Second, market stability functions. Complete margin transactions, typically two sale completed by in the opposite direction, namely finance investors to buy stock, sold through the purchase of securities, repay the funds borrowed from securities companies; margin investors sold, is by buying and selling of securities, repay the borrowed securities to the securities company.. Third, the mobility enhancements. Margin trading can be enlarged to some extent the securities supply and demand, increase market trading volume, and thus active securities trading, and enhance the liquidity of the securities market. Fourth, risk management functions. Margin trading can not only provide investors with new trading tools, but also to change the stock market "unilateral market" situation, facilitate the investors to avoid market risks. .
On the market as a whole, securities margin trading you can zoom in market supply and demand, active market trading, but if you buy and sell securities margin financing (which is the subject of securities) mismanagement of little liquidity, market, are prone to excessive speculation and negative role..
Markets tend to feel that the introduction of margin trading should be in stock index futures. Mid-2006, the CSRC issued "pilot margin trading securities firms management approach" and the "pilot margin trading securities company internal control guidelines", officially launched the pilot margin trading securities companies. However, so far only heard, no one down. Rumors of a delay in appearance of the pilot broker. .
Since the margin there are so many benefits, why not launch? One reason may be that margin is a two-edged sword, launched early fried new habit may make the margin to a certain positive impact on the market in the short term may belong to the rescue, but in the long run can cause more problems. Due to the introduction of this system does not change the fundamentals of China's economy, stock market rally as economic barometer when it comes to a certain height, also fell more aggressive because of the short sale mechanism. Historical experience shows that the long term, margin impact on the stock market is neutral. Perhaps the so-called rescue effect is only a short time..
Goldman Sachs has pointed out in the report, if the strong trading infrastructure in place mechanisms to allow investors to doubt the margin will improve market efficiency and liquidity. However, when valuations are reasonable range, there is no fundamental reason that these mechanisms will have a material impact on share price performance. .
Next, look at this market had aspirations of stock index futures of so-called market-rescue measures..
The so-called stock index futures, stock index is based on a certain standardization of the futures contract assets. Buyers and sellers trade the stock index after a certain period the price level. After the expiration of stock index futures spreads by way of cash settlement for delivery. .
Stock index futures has the following characteristics:..
The first phase of the cross. Stock index futures trading on stock index both movements in the forecast, agreed at a future time in accordance with certain conditions of contracts traded. Therefore, the stock index futures trading is based on future expectations, based on accurate or not directly determine the expected profits and losses of investors. .
Second is leverage. Stock index futures trading does not require full payment of the value of the contract Fund, needs to pay a certain percentage of the margin to signing the larger value of the contract. For example, suppose the stock index futures trading margin of $ 10%, investors pay only 10% of the contract value funds can trade. In this way, investors can control 10 times times the size of the assets of the investment contract. Of course, in amplification of income may be earned at the same time, investors may take losses is greatly magnified..
Four are of high risk and risk diversification. Stock index futures of leverage determines that it has a higher risk than the stock market. In addition, there are specific market risk of stock index futures risk, operational risk, cash flow, etc..
Avoiding risk is a function. Stock index futures risk avoidance is achieved through hedging, investors can reverse the stock market and stock index futures market operations achieve the purpose of avoiding risks. Stock market risk non-systemic risk and systemic risk can be divided into two parts, non-systemic risk can often take a decentralized investment approach to reduce the impact of such risks to a minimum extent, and systemic risk is difficult to be evading through diversification of methods.. .
Second, price discovery. Stock index futures have found price functionality through open bidding of many investors in the futures market, efficient, conducive to the formation of a stock price that reflects the true value of stocks. Futures markets have found price functionality, on the one hand lies in stock index futures trading participant of many, price formation which contains information on prices is expected from all sides. The other hand, with low transaction costs, high leverage multiples of stock index futures, instruction execution speed advantages, new investors are more likely to receive market information, first in the futures market adjustment positions, making stock index futures price reactions to information faster..
While the stock index futures are conducive to healthy and stable development of the domestic stock market, changing the domestic securities market of unilateral long embarrassment, providing investors with short, hedging, arbitrage portfolio and other new operating strategy, rich investors investment channels, but has no specific timetable, there is a reason is similar to margin delay in pushing, that is, stock index futures is a two-edged sword. In a bull market, optimism when the stock market rose under stock index futures can help up; in a bear market, under the pessimism, when stocks index futures fell can also help ...
Shenyin wanguo securities analyst believe that, at least before the Olympic Games, stock index futures, margin does not launch, now need to maintain market stability above all else, management is unlikely to take the risk to launch could cause market volatility and margin and stock index futures ...
Discussion on the reduction of the size of non-lifting of, first of all to back in 2005 a institutional revolution of China's securities market--the share-trading reform. In this reform, the birth of a limited share of the hundreds of millions of meters, and derive a now troubled by the market size of non-lifting of reduction of the problem..
From the above data, reducing the size of non-lifting of 30% of lifting unit was, 30% this level seems to be less than the size of non-lifting of the pressure you feel.
Stamp duty also must mention..
Stamp duty on stock transactions in Shenzhen in 1990 first to introduce, at that time mainly to stable start-up stock and appropriate regulation of stock market gains, by 6 per thousand paid to sell stocks by turnover. In November of the same year, Shenzhen stamp duty on stock buyers also imposed 6 ‰, bilateral chargeable with stamp duty of Chinese stock market history open..
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This is also the regulatory usage, cooked with the dimensional stability and common initiatives. In China's stock market in the growth of less than 19, you can see the official opinion of the guidelines. Due to means of public opinion one of the most "Chinese characteristics", and the concentrated reflection of the "policy market" feature here at pen and ink, go into the details are as follows--..
On December 16, 1996, the people's daily, a contributing commentator's article finally clutch the correct understanding of the current stock market rally by the throat. To the stock market in the text qualitative: "during the recent boom was abnormal and irrational. "With the consent of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, decided to date both in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, listed in the two stocks, securities transactions of the Fund price 10% price restrictions and implement a public information system. On that day, both Shanghai and Shenzhen fell under 10%, most stocks were sealed by huge sell orders on the limit down. The next day, most of the stock is still down on the down limit..
On November 10, 2001, since then the historical high of 2,245 points such as stock market under the Fei Liu to the will of the people's daily, the Chinese stock market down again. Article pointed out that if the poor stock market now, macro-economy will be strong retaliation. Since then rebounded to 1776. Stopped fierce decline, gradual stabilisation, avoiding the collapse ...
.. 94 points, experience last fall even rise after two waves, the highest rising to 1649 points on April 16, 2003. Even so, the article does not bring to shareholders in bull market, up to 5 years long Xiong Tu does not slightly reduced because of the article..
April 17, 2007 the people's daily, asked the Chinese stock market can rise much higher? 》。 The article pointed out that new investors more than 5 million accounts in the first quarter, the novice did not lose money prepared, buying and selling is entirely conform, in a weak position in the market. On that day, the Shanghai composite index (2,453 ... 803,-16 ... 27,-0 ... 66%, bar) closed up 0.43%, 3,611.87, but then has gone through two sessions of only finishing that turn up, until 4,335.96..
In 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the important 3,000-point mark, along with the Olympics approaching, the frequency of public opinion began to spare no effort to blow warm air. July 1, the Xinhua article entitled "Communication on the Chinese stock market" and "editorial" in the Shanghai Composite Index closed down the day 3. .09%, And because the context of the further decline in power grand debut, the core conception is that "the overall favorable economic fundamentals in China's case, the stock market can achieve stable and healthy development." The next day, the Shanghai Composite Index to be flat, but soon hit on 3 July 6124 from a record high. .04 Points to adjust the lowest since 2566. .53 Points.。 On July 7, the Xinhua News Agency published the July rebound intermediate period, clear response of market, soared 4.. 59% '. But good times does not seem to be long, weak stock index rises to 2,952 bombs rise, weakening again. Then, on July 14, the people's daily again with rare full-page, to the full maintenance of stable operation of capital markets for the overall title, discussion on maintaining stability in capital markets, passing voice to maintain capital market stability. On July 19, the SFC or even take the initiative, calling the high-ranking official media, talks about the hot issues in the market, hoping to enhance communication, improve transparency, maintain market stability..
Official media guidance has always been a required course for Chinese investors, but that only features exposed in China policy. Trying to act as a guide shareholders, the management again and never get tired of preaching, but market forces are again and again let management guidelines..
Stabilization Fund, also known as intervention fund the Government through specific institutions (such as securities, finance, and exchanges) Fund established in a legal manner. It for reverse operation of securities markets, ironing irrational violent fluctuations. Main is to prevent a plunge in the stock market boom, to achieve the goal of stable stock market. Under normal circumstances, sources are official channels of the stabilization fund or its basic composition is mandatory, such as national financial allocations, to charge units involved in the securities market, would not exclude the voluntary purchase of investors placing..
First, the policy of stabilization fund is a Fund, its fundamental duty is to achieve stability in the securities market, prevent the boom collapsed. To this end, the establishment, operation, evaluation, management of whole process or directly affected by the policy of accepting the Government's instructions, for securities supervision departments, becoming one of the effective means of direct supervision of the securities market ...
Third, the stabilization fund sources are official channels or its basic composition is mandatory, such as national financial allocations, to charge units involved in the securities market, would not exclude the voluntary purchase of investors placing..
Early on in the early 90 's when the emerging stock market in China, experts, scholars had put forward ideas of stabilization fund, but limited by historical conditions at that time, it is difficult to discuss in depth. The 2004 and 2005, after a long slump in stock market, investor confidence suffer serious setbacks, interests of all participants seriously compromised, renewed heat stabilization fund problems. Later, the share-trading reform to inject vitality into the stock market, market warming and tends to rise, stabilization fund topic is time being put aside. Since the beginning of this year, the stock market collapse, unstable release again, calls on Equalization Fund so again ...
Most market participants believe that direct investors enter the market regulators are at greater risk, and unreasonable, is shareholders only wishful thinking of ...
Due to the stabilization fund needed for the establishment of legislative and other complex program, and after the founding of its sources of finance and operations are facing many problems, many market analysts seem to have stabilization fund had little expectations, but some people think, in fact, the Government did not only say that, within the meaning of non-institutional "stabilization fund" may have been in action ...
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Back to the origin of the problem – should the Government bailout. Everbright securities analysts, marketing can't save, is not saved. First, the bailout is equivalent to changing the rules of the game, rules of the game do not change their minds. Second, saving, the stock market also went up, later to do, when they hear that stabilization fund to sell in the market and the fall, like reducing the size of non-lifting of, to the lifting of the time, also said that the extension of ban, or for fear of it without reducing it lifted, rather than letting the market itself to digestive solution..
The report points out that, SFC bear market, stabilize the stock market, "to rescue the market" and other special functions. Comprehensive intervention on the securities market is because the power not only become the most scarce resources of the listed companies, the creation of the existing stock market culture and all the negative stock market behavior ...
In that case, why the market is so keen to call for rescue? To rescue them from indulging probably rooted in the tradition of Chinese policy market. Policy in a certain sense means that the market does not sound not perfect. Missing, on the institutional defects of the system, lack of integrity of the rules of the game brought frequently modified, and so on, resulted in entrenched in China stock market policy..
In fact, today's problems in Chinese stock market problems may not be saved or not saved but system construction, macroeconomic issues. Although margin, stock index futures and the introduction of the system still does not see the schedule, but its launch should be inevitable trend. In practice, is precisely the basic system is not perfect, causing embarrassment currently have no way to back down. Construction of perfecting the system of technical importance of this proposition, regulators have been very clear, public statement, the Securities and Futures Commission Chairman Shang Fulin, often mentioned in, but easier..
At present, the position of the Government's macro-control in the second half has now become the focus of the market. Most market participants expected tightening of monetary policy is still difficult to relax in the short term, China facing economic stagnation of the coexistence of economic downturn and high inflation risk..
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。 If the external markets no major negative news, the stock market is likely to remain volatile as..
However, regardless of whether the third-quarter economic growth in China back to 10%, United States subprime mortgage crisis, high oil prices but also of the evolution of what effect on the Chinese economy, there are still reasons for China's economy is in a period of growth, long-term prospects with confidence, in other words, is confident about prospects for China's stock market ...
